When Will the Patriots’ First Loss Come?

When Will the Patriots’ First Loss Come?
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

The Patriots, expected to finish last in the AFC East, according to sportsbooks, open by hosting the Philadelphia Eagles.

By Josh Markowitz

As the 2023 NFL season rapidly approaches, BetMassachusetts.com sought to analyze the beginning of the New England Patriots’ schedule.

BetMassachusetts.com – where we will provide the best Massachusetts sportsbook promos all season long - compiled odds to determine when the Patriots are most likely to lose their first game of the year. 

Hypothetical Odds on When Patriots Will Lose 1st Game

Although the odds listed are purely hypothetical and not offered by any Massachusetts sportsbook, they are our best reflection of the current legal sports betting market.  This is how the initial part of New England’s schedule looks:

WeekOpponentOddsPercent Chance
1vs. Eagles+21067.7%
2vs. Dolphins+50016.7%
3at NY Jets+60014.3%
4at Cowboys+200000.5%
5vs. Saints+200000.5%
- Past Week 5+200000.5%


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Opener Will Be Tough Test for Patriots

If the prognostications are correct, the Patriots are in line for potentially their worst season in more than two decades.  DraftKings Massachusetts places their over/under regular season win total at 6.5, tied for the second lowest mark in the league ahead of only the Arizona Cardinals.

Per SportsOddsHistory.com, that is New England’s lowest preseason over/under win total since 2001, Tom Brady’s first year as the primary starting quarterback.  Were they to hit the under this year, it would guarantee them their fewest wins since at least 2000 when they finished 5-11.

The schedule does no favors to the Patriots playoff chances from the start, as they open with the NFC favorite and defending conference champion Philadelphia Eagles. Although the game is in Foxboro the Eagles are currently favored by 4 points, tied for the largest spread deficit New England is expected to see at home this season.

Following this contest the Patriots face consecutive divisional opponents, one at home and one on the road.  New England will welcome the Miami Dolphins to Gillette Stadium in Week 2  before traveling to take on the New York Jets in Week 3.

The Dolphins are projected as 2.5-point favorites over the Patriots, while the Jets are giving 4.5 points against the spread in their matchup right now.  This reflects the perceived hierarchy of the AFC East, in which where New England owns the worst odds to win the division at Massachusetts sports betting apps. New England is at +800 per DraftKings, while every other team in the division sits at +300 or less and features an over/under win total of at least 9.5.

Moving to Week 4, the Patriots stay on the road versus another expected playoff team as they visit the Dallas Cowboys, where they presently register as 4.5-point underdogs just like against the Jets the week before.

New England is not expected to be favored in a game until Week 5 when they play the New Orleans Saints at home.  That is one of only three games all year where the Patriots are the anticipated favorite as of right now.

New England’s schedule rates as tied for the third hardest of 2023 by last season’s opponents record, although, according to Sharp Football Analysis, the Patriots will face the league’s toughest schedule based  on this year’s projected preseason win totals.

Throughout the season, be sure to check back often for the latest offers, such as the current Caesars Massachusetts promo code for $250 in bonus bets.

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Josh Markowitz is a freelance writer for BetMassachusetts.com. He is a lifelong sports fan with an emphasis on basketball, football, baseball, and the scouting/evaluation process. A graduate of Elon University's School of Communications, Josh also has experience in television production.

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