When the Boston Red Sox chose Chaim Bloom as Chief Baseball Officer in October 2019, hiring him away from the Tampa Bay Rays, national MLB pundits praised him as a 35-year-old front office prodigy, an analytical mind that could lead the Sox to the promised land and make them perennial World Series favorites across Massachusetts sports betting.
The Boston Globe's Dan Shaughnessy wrote under the header, "Is Chaim Bloom the Next Theo Epstein?"
Alas, three seasons into the Bloom era, all is not well for the Sox, and fans' patience with the executive is waning.
The 2020 campaign, shortened by COVID-19 restrictions, began with Boston trading beloved outfielder Mookie Betts to the Dodgers and ended with the Red Sox finishing last in the American League East. In 2021, the Sox made a run to the AL Championship Series under returning manager Alex Cora, which seemed to buy Bloom a little more time to make his mark in Beantown.
But 2022 saw the Sox go 78-84, again last in the AL East, and another fan favorite, shortstop Xander Bogaerts walked via free agency. That turned up the heat on Bloom in Boston.
To make matters worse, sportsbooks don’t love the Sox' chances this season as spring training nears. DraftKings Massachusetts Sportsbook, an operator based in Boston, have the Sox at +1900 to win the AL East, behind the Yankees (+105), Blue Jays (+220) and Rays (+370).
With the Sox in danger of finishing last in the AL East for the third time in four years, BetMassachusetts came up with hypothetical odds for how long Bloom will remain as the shot-caller in Boston.
Hypothetical Odds On Bloom's Future in Boston
What The Numbers Say
As you can see by the odds above, Bloom's future is murky to say the least.
Our model gives the slight edge to his return in 2024, but at +140, that outcome would be far from a sure thing across Massachusetts sports betting apps. This prop won't be available when Massachusetts sports wagering launches at the end of this month (with mobile sports betting to follow in March) but all kinds of Red Sox bets will be available at that time.
Bloom has +220 odds (or 31.2% implied probability) of being let go mid-season this year. While that may seem harsh, should the Sox stumble out of the gate, fans' unrest will take center stage in Boston, with most, if not all of their resentment, directed at Bloom. Of course, you aren't able to use a BetMGM Massachusetts bonus code yet to wager on these odds, but they help paint the picture.
Bloom's predecessor, Dave Dombrowski, was shockingly fired mid-season in 2019, just one year after helping the Sox win the World Series over the Dodgers. Dombrowski last season helped the Phillies reach the Fall Classic, another element in Sox fans' frustrations with Bloom.
Slightly more likely than a mid-season firing would be the Sox parting ways with Bloom after the 2023 regular season, which we have at +187 with a 34.8% implied probability.
Bloom would be more than lucky to survive another season without threatening the playoffs, but the club's ownership is likely more to blame for the lack of free agent spending than Bloom himself. While Bloom did retain star third baseman Rafael Devers this offseason, his failure to keep Betts and Bogaerts likely had to do with a lack of approval from ownership to write the checks.
But as long as Bloom is front and center amid the expected 2023 on-field struggles, the longer ownership is out of sight, if not quite out of mind. A simple parting of the ways at the end of the season looms large here.
Not Over Just Yet
Last but not least, Bloom has +650 odds of serving through 2024 and beyond, because you never say never.
While fans and sportsbooks alike are down on the Sox' chances this season, an overachieving campaign like 2021 could go a long way toward securing Bloom's future. Should Devers deliver early on his extension and the club gets a bounce-back season from Chris Sale, plus perhaps a strong showing from new Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida, Bloom would suddenly look much different in the eyes of both fans and ownership.
But that's a longshot, at +650 to be exact. To put that into perspective a +650 bet would turn a $100 wager into $650 at a book like WynnBET Massachusetts.
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