Patriots vs Bills: Who Is Favored To Win?
The Patriots and Bills have matched up 132 times, with the Patriots leading the overall record, 80-51-1. Their second meeting in the 2025 season will come in a Week 15 showdown. Early odds have the Bills as heavy favorites. Playing in Buffalo is always difficult, and under the bright lights of SNF, there is even more pressure on the Patriots to prove themselves.
Here's how Massachusetts betting apps think those games will go:
Week 5: Patriots at Bills
Sunday, October 5, 8:20 p.m. EST. The Bills lost 23-20 to the Patriots, failing to cover the spread. The under hit.
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Spread |
| BUF -375 | NE +295 | 49.5 | BUF -7.5 |
Week 15: Bills at Patriots
Sunday, December 14, 1:00 p.m. EST
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Spread |
| BUF -205 | NE +170 | 46.5 | BUF -4.5 |
Latest Patriots Bills Odds, Updates & News
Here are the key updates impacting the next iteration of the Patriots vs Bills rivalry.
- 📆 April 21: Buffalo signs DB Tre'Davious White.
- 📆 March 28: The Patriots sign WR Stefon Diggs.
- 📆 March 14: New England signs S Marcus Epps, WR Mack Hollins, and DT Khyiris Tonga.
- 📆 March 13: The Patriots sign CB Carlton Davis III, DT Milton Williams, OT Morgan Moses, and LB Robert Spillane.
- 📆 March 12: Buffalo signs DE Joey Bosa and WR Josh Palmer.
- 📆 March 9: The Bills release DE Von Miller.
- 📆 February 25: Buffalo re-signs WR Khalil Shakir to a four-year contract extension.
- 📆 January 12: The Patriots hire Mike Vrabel as Head Coach.
Patriots vs Bills Odds: What the Spread Tells Us
The Patriots vs Bills spread indicates that Buffalo is favored in both meetings, more so in the first game. The spread for the Patriots-Bills is expected to change as the season progresses, but for now, the Bills are favored by 8.5 points in Week 5 at home and favored once again in Week 15, this time by 4.5 points. These two games will be paramount in the Patriots playoff chances given the tough divisional matchup.
Patriots vs Bills Odds: What the Over/Under Tells Us
The over/under or total for the Patriots-Bills games is the same for both meetings, so far. Sportsbooks like BetMGM Massachusetts have the over/under for both matchups set at 46.5. In 2024, the first Patriots-Bills game total was 45, and the second matchup was 39, so keep that in mind as these games approach.
Patriots vs Bills Odds: What the Moneyline Tells Us
The Patriots vs Bills moneyline favors Buffalo heavily in Week 5 at -410 at sportsbooks like Fanatics Sportsbook Massachusetts. Based on implied probability, this gives Buffalo an 80.4% chance of beating the Patriots on SNF. The moneyline for the Patriots-Bills Week 15 matchup still favors Buffalo, but much less so at -205.
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Patriots-Bills Rivalry
The Patriots-Bills rivalry spans 60 years, dating back to 1960 when both teams were members of the American Football League. The two teams have combined for 17 AFL/AFC championships, the most of any two teams in the NFC East.
The rivalry has been competitive over those 60 years, with the Patriots leading the matchup all-time at 79-51-1. However, the majority of those wins came during the Tom Brady era, with the quarterback having a record of 32-3 against Buffalo in his time with New England.
Since Brady's departure in 2020, the Bills are 7-3 against the Patriots, including a 47-17 beatdown in the 2021-2022 NFL playoffs.
Author
Blake Weishaar is a content strategist and fact-checker for BetMassachusetts.com. He has nearly a decade of experience in the gambling industry as a writer and editor at Fantini Research and Eilers & Krejcik Gaming. He is committed to making sure readers have the most up-to-date and correct information about Massachusetts betting regulations and information.
