New England Patriots 2024 Win Total: Trends of 4.5 Win Total Teams

Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

It’s safe to say that the New England Patriots’ dynasty is officially dead and gone, with the club careening from the 20-year high of winning six Super Bowls and 232 games between 2001 and 2019.  

Fresh from a 4-13 campaign across Massachusetts sports betting that saw the ouster of future Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick, New England is turning the keys over to No. 3 pick Drake Maye at quarterback, with the former UNC Tar Heel tasked with reviving a once proud organization under first-year head coach Jerod Mayo.

Utilizing DraftKings Massachusetts' current win total for the 2024 NFL season, the Patriots were found to be set at 4.5 wins (-160 over). Utilizing SportsReference.com, we found all teams with a 4.5-win total line in the last 10 NFL seasons and how they performed.  

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Season Performance Of 4.5 Win Total NFL Teams

Situation

Number of Teams 

Percentage*

Under 4.5 Wins

6 of 8 

75.0%

Over 4.5 Wins

2 of 8

25.0%

Make NFL Playoffs

0 of 8

0.0%

Average Wins

3.0 wins

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Can Pats Flip 4.5 Win Total Script in 2024?

Since 2014, six of the eight teams that entered the year with a preseason win total over/under of 4.5 (or 75%) won four or fewer games at year’s end, while none of those clubs reached the playoffs that year. Not great for the Patriots playoff chances this upcoming season. 

The most “successful” team of the bunch was the 2022 Atlanta Falcons, who wound up winning seven games in 2022, while the 2019 Miami Dolphins had five wins and the 2023 Arizona Cardinals wound up getting four victories.  

Conversely, the 2017 Cleveland Browns went winless in such a situation, while the team from the year before and the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars won one game. The 2021 Detroit Lions, and 2022 Houston Texans won two games apiece in such a situation.  

Come September, New England will launch a new era with little hope of overnight success, though the NFL is a league where history is made to be broken, with Mayo hoping such an outcome will occur in Foxborough under the leadership provided by a rookie quarterback and a roster full of inexperienced talent.  

USA Today photo by Eric Canha.

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Author

Christopher Boan has been covering sports and sports betting for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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