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Christopher Boan has been covering sports and sports betting for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
How Often Do 1-4 NFL Teams Make The Postseason?
Year One of the Jerod Mayo era in Foxborough has seen a lot more lows than highs so far, with the New England Patriots limping their way through a 1-4 start with four straight defeats at the hands of teams like the Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins.
The Patsâ latest faceplant came at home against Miami, who managed to pull off a 15-10 victory on the road despite score one touchdown in the contest, thanks to the Dolphinsâ defense holding the home side to 299 offensive yards in the contest.
As a result of their four-game skid, oddsmakers from Bet365 Massachusetts have downgraded the Patsâ playoff odds, moving them down to +1500 to reach the postseason, compared with -5000 odds that they miss out for a third straight season.
At BetMassachusetts.com, we used Champs or Chumps to see how teams ended up the rest of the NFL season after starting their season with a 1-4 record since the 2019 NFL season. There have been 25 teams in the past five seasons that have started 1-4. Since playoffs arenât historically possible for both teams, we looked into how teams that start 1-4 do the season following. Using Pro-Football-Reference.com, we found the average performance and postseason results of all 1-4 teams the season following between 2018-2022. There have been 25 1-4 teams within this time period.
How Do 1-4 Teams Do The Next Season?
Number of Teams | Avg. Performance | % Making Playoffs |
25 | .376 | 24% |
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The data below speaks volumes as to how you should approach any Patriots futures bets on Massachusetts sports betting apps this season.
Situation | Number of Teams | Percentage* |
Making The Playoffs | 1 | 4% |
Advanced Past Wild Card Round | 0 | 0.0% |
Winning Divisional Round | 0 | 0.0% |
Winning Conference Championship | 0 | 0.0% |
Winning Super Bowl | 0 | 0.0% |
*Rounded to nearest whole number
How Do NFLâs 1-4 Teams Fare?
Since 2019, only one of the 25 teams that started 1-4 made it to the playoffs at yearâs end, representing 4% of the total and speaking to the daunting future that awaits Mayo in his first season as an NFL head coach.
Overall, NFL teams that start 1-4 finish with an average winning percentage of .376 the year after, with 24% of the 25 teams (or six teams) making the playoffs the year after they started with four losses in five weeks.
This year, New England will look to right their collective gridiron wrongs when they host the Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon, with Bet365 currently listing the Patsâ as a 6.5-point home underdog with a +230 moneyline on Mayo and company.
Based on how the last four Sundays have gone, such an outcome seems far more likely than not as New Englandâs Week 1 win over the Cincinnati Bengals drifts further into the rearview mirror this fall.
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